Harry Enten, a senior data guru and reporter for CNN, discussed the possible outcomes of the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, October 8. According to current polls, former President Donald Trump may win and Vice President Kamala Harris may lose “in a blowout.”
Enten talked specifically about the current polling numbers, especially in key states. Although the contest is “too close to call,” he pointed out that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are currently tied for the lead. Enten then pointed out that polls have been wildly inaccurate in previous elections, and if this continues, Trump will win handily.
Enten gave CNN host John Berman an explanation like this. “If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona,” he began by explaining what the current polls were suggesting to Berman.
He continued, “But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020,” indicating what would happen if the polls were inaccurate as they were during the previous presidential election. Then, what occurs? Then, with 312 electoral votes, Donald Trump wins the election handily because he wins Nevada, all of the Great Lake battleground states, and the other states he was ahead in: Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
He went on to remark, “What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022? It would be even more of a blowout for Harris if the polling is reflective of the polling failures in 2022. Now, the winner in that specific case has flipped once more. And with 319 electoral votes, Kamala Harris easily wins the election after regaining control of four Great Lake battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
“So the bottom line here is, yes, we have those state polling averages,” Enten concluded, pointing out that the polls aren’t conclusive enough to establish a winner. In actuality, however, they are telling us that the race is too close to call. It’s likely that we won’t find out who will prevail for another month or even longer.
In September, national political correspondent for NBC News Steve Kornacki stated, “Take a look here at the last two elections, 2020, 2016, the polling at this point coming out of Labor Day, beginning the fall rush.” Kornacki also suggested that Trump could perform better than current polls based on his ability to surpass polling numbers.
Kornacki went on, “Hillary Clinton led on average by five points in 2016.” Naturally, Donald Trump prevailed in 2016. By Labor Day 2020, Joe Biden’s lead had grown even further on average. Though he didn’t win that election, Donald Trump came very close to winning it in the electoral college, Ana. Trump has, undoubtedly, already fled from behind.
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